Although they may appear to be disconnected on the surface, and near-term outcomes are impossible to predict, they’re likely no more disconnected than usual. One of the more important considerations to keep in mind about financial markets is that they’ve always been forward looking. Economic data, by its nature and difficulty in tabulation, always reflects
The stock market ended the quarter yesterday up 20%, which was the best quarterly return seen in decades. This despite the pervasive news of COVID-19 infections, murders, riots, and violence. How is this possible? We started the quarter only a week removed from the low that happened on 3/23, and since the stock market is
As we prepare to start a holiday weekend to honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country, I wanted to give a little perspective on the stock market. As you know, all that we’ve heard for the last ~11 straight weeks has been bad news, and while the stock market has steadily risen
During the financial crisis of 2008-2009, just like now, I had a lot of conversations with a lot of clients about what might happen next. Also like now, I was sending out commentaries just like this one to talk about long-term vs short-term. I kept all of those commentaries, and I was just re-reading one
The Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has rocked the markets over the last few days. The main reason is due to the fear of the disruption of economies from people either not being allowed to go out (curfews in China or other places) or being afraid to go out (think of airlines and cruise ships especially). This
Happy 2020! As you are probably aware, regarding investments, we had a fantastic 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up over 25%, and the S&P 500 was even better, over 31%. Internationally, developed country stocks were up 22%, and even bonds did well with the Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index returning nearly 9%. So, unless
I think we’ve done a decent job of educating clients because the market is presently at an all-time high and I’m starting to hear more and more comments and questions from existing clients about economic recessions and market declines. I’m glad of that, and would rather have that conservative reaction than “let’s get more aggressive”,
All of the talk today has been about recession, as the spread (difference) between the 2-year US Treasury and the 10-year US Treasury is inverted (the former is greater than the latter), which has generally been a precursor for a recession. What does that mean for long-term investors? Nothing, really. Whether or not we are
After a really nice rally this year from stocks, which more than offset the sharp decline at the end of 2018, last week U.S. stocks experienced their worst week of the year so far, ending in losses across the board. Over the 5 days until the time of this writing on Monday morning, markets are
As we start the 3rd quarter of 2019, I thought it prudent to look at a very interesting past 3 months as well as the best first half of the year for the S&P 500 in over two decades. 2019 is off to a great start, with the S&P 500 up 18.54% through the end